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该文以漳平水文站站址所在河道断面以上的九龙江北溪流域为研究区域,利用数字高程模型(DEM)处理的地形指数和距离面积分布函数、区域自动气象站雨量资料作为TOPMODEL水文模型的输入资料,以水库坝址及水文站站址进行流域单元划分,分单元流域模拟重要洪水过程的逐时流量,以水库入库流量和水文站点逐时实测流量作为模型率定依据,优化调整可应用于研究区域的水文模型参数。研究结果表明:TOPMODEL水文模型在研究流域内对洪水过程总平均确定性系数为0.88,平均径流深误差为-4.63%,平均洪峰误差为14.92%;水库入库流量模拟效果好,确定性系数达0.90。这表明TOPMODEL对九龙江北溪流域洪水预报模拟有一定的适用性,可作为洪水预报的参考依据。通过结合更多的洪水过程数据不断优化调整模型参数,应用本地化TOPMODEL水文模型和区域数值预报产品的逐时降水资料,将为水库入库流量及中小河流流域精细化水文气象预报服务的开展提供客观定量的预报产品。
Based on the Beixi River Basin in Jiulong River above the section of the river where the station of Zhangping Hydrology Station is located, using the topographic index and distance distribution function of digital elevation model (DEM) and the rainfall data of regional automatic weather station as the TOPMODEL hydrological model Enter the data to divide the river basin units with the reservoir dam site and the hydrological station site, and to simulate the hourly flow rate of the important flood process in the unit watershed. Taking the reservoir inflow rate and the hourly measured flow rate of the hydrological station as the basis for the model calibration, the optimal adjustment can be made Hydrological model parameters applied to the study area. The results show that the TOPMODEL hydrological model has a total average certainty coefficient of 0.88 for the flood process and an average runoff depth error of -4.63% and an average peak error of 14.92% in the study watershed. Simulation results of the reservoir inflow rate are good, and the certainty coefficient 0.90. This indicates that TOPMODEL has certain applicability to the flood forecasting in Beixi River Basin of Jiulongjiang River Basin and can be used as reference for flood forecasting. Continued optimization and adjustment of model parameters through the integration of more flood process data, application of localized TOPMODEL hydrological models and time-series precipitation data of regional numerical forecast products will provide the reservoir inbound flow and the meticulous hydrological and meteorological forecast service in medium and small river basins Objective and quantitative forecast products.