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为了结合已有的工程设计经验,充分利用工程实际资料,提高大坝安全分析的可信程度,本文提出利用水文学研究推求大坝上、下游水位的分布,并应用Bayes方法修正各个统计参数.同时,通过提出截断型分布型式,给出相应的参数,然后采用多重降维法的F-P图解法计算重力坝抗滑稳定可靠度。具体计算可按下列步骤进行:(1)依据随机变量的统计参数和分布型式,列出极限状态方程;(2)按工程实况计算截断放大系数;(3)计算上下游水位;(4)求出相应水位大坝安全可靠度。
In order to make full use of actual project data and improve the credibility of dam safety analysis, this paper proposes the use of hydrological research to infer the distribution of water level at the upper and lower reaches of the dam, and apply Bayes method to amend each statistical parameter. At the same time, by presenting the truncated distribution type, the corresponding parameters are given, and then the FP graphical method of multiple dimensionality reduction method is used to calculate the stability of the gravity dam against sliding. The specific calculation can be carried out according to the following steps: (1) According to the statistical parameters and distribution type of random variables, list the equation of limit state; (2) Calculate the cutoff amplification factor according to the actual situation of the project; (3) Calculate the upstream and downstream water levels; The corresponding dam safety and reliability.