根据黄毛鼠种群数量季节变动大而年间变动不大的时间变化特征 ,采用时间序列模型并结合季节指数法建立了黄毛鼠种群的预测模型 ,提出了珠江三角洲黄毛鼠发生程度的划分标准 ,1 997～1 999年预测了东莞市黄毛鼠的发生程度 ,准确率达到 80 .6%。 According to the time-varying features of the population of rodents in the seasons, the seasonal variation of the population of rhesus hamster is not obvious, the time-series model and seasonal index method were used to establish the prediction model of the rhesus rat population, From 1997 to 1999, the occurrence of Rattus norvegicus in Dongguan City was predicted with an accuracy rate of 80.6%.