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文章采用社会网络分析方法,引入贸易依赖度概念及阈值设定,从贸易网络整体性、贸易伙伴间关系、贸易中心地位和贸易社团划分四个维度,分析2000-2014年海上丝绸之路62国贸易网络结构特征及演化规律。研究表明:(1)该贸易网络具有小世界特征,相关国家域内依赖度不断提高,中国倡建海上丝绸之路使该网络聚集效应迅速提升;(2)该贸易网络异配、有序,2008年次贷危机后核心-边缘新秩序得以确认与强化,贸易伙伴间差异性收敛;(3)TOP12“富人俱乐部”成员较稳定但排序变动,中国中心地位攀升与日本演化轨迹呈剪刀形交叉,印度崛起曲线明显;(4)地理毗邻、海域相通是贸易社团形成的纽带,东盟一体化和南亚融入区域使主体贸易社团形态向西贯通绵延,中国在其中起战略推动和社团联结的重要作用。中国产业转型和区域互联互通的努力,将对进一步优化和加强海上丝绸之路贸易网络产生巨大影响。
This article introduces the concept of trade dependence and the threshold setting by introducing social network analysis method. From the four dimensions of trade network integrity, trade partners, trade center status and trade community division, this paper analyzes the maritime Silk Road from 2000 to 2014 in 62 countries The Structure and Evolution of Trade Network. The results show that: (1) the trade network has the characteristics of a small world, the dependence degree in the relevant countries and regions is increasing, and the promotion of the maritime Silk Road by China promotes the network aggregation effect to rise rapidly. (2) The trade network is heterogeneous and orderly, 2008 After the subprime mortgage crisis, the core-periphery new order was confirmed and strengthened, and the trade partners’ differences converged. (3) The members of TOP12 ’rich club ’ were relatively stable but the order was changed. China’s central status rose and Japan’s evolution track was scissors (4) geographical proximity, maritime connectivity is the formation of trade associations, ASEAN integration and South Asia into the region to make the main form of trade associations extending to the west, in which China plays a strategic and community associations to promote Important role. China’s industrial restructuring and regional connectivity efforts will have a tremendous impact on further optimizing and strengthening the maritime Silk Road trade network.