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管道腐蚀是引起管线破坏的主要因素之一,预测管线的腐蚀变化趋势是延长管道寿命,保证管道安全运行的重要步骤。影响腐蚀各因素之间的相互作用十分复杂,实验过程不能控制所有因素变化情况,实验结果分散性比较大,有必要采用各种科学的方法对实验数据进行分析处理。比较分析了主要的油气管道腐蚀速率预测方法,修正并完善了GM(1,1)模型的边界条件,利用复化Simpson公式和Lagrange插值法重新构造了GM(1,1)模型背景值,改进了传统模型只能对等时距时刻的腐蚀速率数据进行预测的缺点,得到全新的GM(1,1)预测模型计算公式,计算简便、使用方便、提高了预测精度。
Pipeline corrosion is one of the main factors leading to pipeline damage. It is an important step to predict pipeline corrosion trend to prolong the life of pipelines and ensure the safe operation of pipelines. The interaction between the factors that affect corrosion is very complicated. The experimental process can not control the change of all the factors. The dispersion of the experimental results is relatively large. Therefore, it is necessary to use various scientific methods to analyze and process the experimental data. The main prediction methods for the corrosion rate of oil and gas pipelines are compared and analyzed. The boundary conditions of the GM (1,1) model are modified and improved. The background values of the GM (1,1) model are reconstructed using the complex Simpson formula and the Lagrange interpolation method. The traditional model can only predict the corrosion rate data at the same time interval, and a new calculation formula of GM (1,1) prediction model is obtained. The calculation is simple and convenient, and the prediction accuracy is improved.