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在上世纪90年代两轮大规模私有化结束之后,过去十多年内俄罗斯“国家-资本”间关系呈现两个冲突的趋势:一是进入新世纪以来直到2008年危机前达到高峰的“国家资本主义”体制;二是持续不断的“第三波私有化”浪潮、尤其是在2009年以后俄罗斯政府的新私有化动议。分析这两个貌似冲突的趋势背后的动因,以及2008年的金融危机如何成为两个趋势冲突形态变化的重要转折点具有重要意义。这两组政策选择的背后,是俄罗斯政治精英阶层内部对于实现俄经济结构转型的两种不同路径选择。在这样的精英冲突背景下,新私有化动议在2017年前如期完成的可能性微乎其微。
After two rounds of large-scale privatization in the 1990s, the relationship between Russia and “state-capital” has shown two conflicts over the past decade or so: firstly, it entered a new century and peaked before the crisis in 2008, The “national capitalism” system; the second is the continuous wave of “third wave of privatization”, especially since the Russian government’s new privatization move after 2009. It is important to analyze the drivers behind these seemingly conflicting trends and how the financial crisis of 2008 became an important turning point in the changing patterns of the two trends. Behind these two sets of policy choices are two different path choices within Russia’s political elite for the transformation of Russia’s economic structure. In the context of such elite conflicts, the possibility of the new privatization move being completed by 2017 will be minimal.