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初步探讨了灰色系统理论中的GM(1,1)模型用于预测井灌水稻区渠道水温的可行性和合理性,并建立了用于预测水温的灰色模型,经过相对误差及后验差检验,结果表明预测精度等级为Ⅰ级,表明该方法对估计水温时序值是可行的。
The feasibility and rationality of using GM (1,1) model in gray system theory to predict channel water temperature in well-irrigated rice area are discussed. A gray model for predicting water temperature is established. After relative error and posterior difference test, The results show that the prediction accuracy grade is level Ⅰ, which shows that this method is feasible to estimate the time series of water temperature.