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本文在双对数模型的前提下,使用了传统的多元回归方法、主成分分析法等方法,从不同的角度对这个问题进行了分析。同时,本文还借鉴了时间序列的方法来对分析结果进行参照。通过综合比较,从而找出对于这一问题最适用的方法,进而得出在美国这样的成熟市场,环境中的各个因素对于汽车需求量的作用与影响,并做出相应预测。本文从总体上考虑了就业情况、国民收入、消费价格以及贷款利率等因素。它们分别受到企业、个人、政府以及央行的行为影响,是购车需求的主要考量标准。
Under the premise of double logarithm model, this paper uses the traditional multiple regression method, principal component analysis and other methods to analyze this problem from different perspectives. At the same time, this article also draws on time series method to reference the analysis results. By comprehensive comparison, we can find the most suitable method for this problem, and then come to the conclusion that in the mature market such as the United States, the influence of various factors in the environment on the demand of automobile and the corresponding prediction. In this paper, the factors such as employment, national income, consumer prices and loan interest rates are all considered. Influenced by the behavior of enterprises, individuals, governments and central banks, respectively, they are the main criteria for car purchase demand.