论文部分内容阅读
在人们对产品的需求日趋个性化的新背景下,企业对于产品需求的预测不能再简单的如以往的基于产品产量的预测,而且现有的需求预测方法也不再适合个性化需求的预测。本文首先分析了个性化需求的特点,即对于下期产品的需求与历史数据关系不大,只与本期的需求情况有较大的关系,而这个特点正符合马尔可夫链预测方法要求的基本前提条件,因此选择马尔可夫链预测方法对个性化需求下的市场需求进行预测,最后选择了某手机生产企业产品的实例进行了需求预测。
Under the new background of the increasingly personalized demand for products, enterprises can no longer simply predict the product demand as the previous product yield based forecasting, and the existing demand forecasting methods are no longer suitable for the personalized demand forecasting. This paper first analyzes the characteristics of individualized demand, that is, the demand for the next product has little to do with the historical data but only has a great relationship with the current demand situation, which is in line with the requirements of Markov chain prediction method Therefore, we choose Markov Chain Forecasting method to predict the market demand under the personalized demand. Finally, we select the case of a mobile phone manufacturer to forecast the demand.