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基于七种单一评价模型分别对油气投资环境进行评价,使用模糊聚类分析和Kendall协调系数法对模型的相容性进行检验,确定相容方法集,进而构建油气投资环境的最优加权组合评价模型,以消除不同评价理论评价结果之间的不一致性,提高评价结果的合理性。以我国五大主要油气投资地区中的40个主要油气生产国家为研究对象,基于该评价模型使用2006—2015年数据对油气投资环境演化及影响因素进行研究。结果表明:2006—2013年海外油气投资环境整体呈现上升趋势,2014—2015年下滑趋势明显;油气资源开发潜力、经济环境、基础环境是最主要的影响因素,且地区特征明显,中东、中亚—俄罗斯地区油气资源潜力较大,基础环境优越,亚太地区经济优势明显;政治环境复杂多变,整体趋于不断恶化,经济环境和基础环境持续改善,俄罗斯、南美地区油气资源开发潜力不断提升,社会环境、法律法规及政策环境表现较为稳定。
Based on seven single evaluation models, the investment environment of oil and gas were evaluated respectively. The compatibility of the model was tested by using fuzzy clustering analysis and Kendall co-ordination coefficient method to determine the compatible method set, and then the optimal weighted portfolio evaluation of oil and gas investment environment was constructed Model to eliminate the inconsistency between the evaluation results of different evaluation theories and to improve the rationality of the evaluation results. Taking the 40 major oil and gas producing countries in the five major oil and gas investment regions of China as the research object, this paper uses the data from 2006 to 2015 to study the evolution and influencing factors of oil and gas investment environment. The results show that the overseas oil and gas investment environment presents an overall upward trend from 2006 to 2013, and the decline trend is obvious from 2014 to 2015. The development potential of oil and gas resources, the economic environment and the basic environment are the most important factors, and the regional characteristics are obvious. The Middle East, Central Asia - The Russian region has great potential for oil and gas resources, superior basic environment, obvious economic advantages in the Asia-Pacific region, complex and volatile political environment, overall deteriorating conditions, continuous improvement of the economic environment and basic environment, the potential of oil and gas resources development in Russia and South America rising, The social environment, laws and regulations and policy environment are more stable.