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在大数据背景下,统计推理是警务信息研判的重要方式。广义的统计推理是指在样本属性和总体属性之间进行的推理,包括统计概括推理、统计类比推理和统计三段论。为了提高警务信息研判中统计推理的前提对结论的支持强度,警务信息研判人员必须遵守相应的推理规则,并且采用大数据技术对大数据信息进行及时、快速、高效、准确、集约的分析。同时,为了尽可能得出可靠的统计结论,警务信息研判人员还要注意防止诸如样本偏颇谬误、数据混淆谬误和结论不恰当谬误。
In the context of big data, statistical reasoning is an important way to judge the police information. Generalized statistical reasoning refers to the reasoning between sample attributes and overall attributes, including statistical general reasoning, statistical analogy reasoning and statistical syllogism. In order to improve the strength of support for the conclusions in the premise of statistical reasoning in the judgment of police information, the police information researchers must abide by the corresponding rules of reasoning and use big data technology to analyze the big data information in a timely, rapid, efficient, accurate and intensive way . At the same time, in order to obtain credible statistical conclusions as much as possible, police information researchers should also pay attention to prevent such fallacies as sample bias, data confusion and inappropriate conclusions.