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港口物流和航空物流是现代物流产业的重要组成部分,与经济发展具有密切的关系。应用Granger因果关系检验法检验广州、深圳和香港1990—2007年间的港口和航空物流增量与当地和包括港澳在内的大珠三角城市群GDP之间增量的因果关系,从定量角度分别研究了广州、深圳和香港港口和航空物流业对城市和区域经济增长的作用,运用回归模型确定港口物流和航空与经济增长之间的数量关系,发现它们呈非线性的三次曲线关系,然后采用边际效应和弹性分析分别计算出三地港口和航空物流业的单位增长给当地和区域经济带来的增长额度,最后提出协调区域物流产业,促进区域经济发展的若干对策建议。
Port logistics and aviation logistics are an important part of the modern logistics industry and have a close relationship with economic development. Granger causality test was used to test the causal relationship between incremental delta of port and aviation logistics in Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hong Kong during 1990-2007 and GDP of the Greater PRD cities including Hong Kong and Maucao. From the quantitative point of view, The role of Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hong Kong ports and aviation logistics industry on urban and regional economic growth, using regression models to determine the quantitative relationship between port logistics and aviation and economic growth, found that they are nonlinear cubic curve relationship, and then use the marginal Effect and elasticity analysis respectively calculated the growth of the unit growth of the three ports and aviation logistics industry to the local and regional economy, and finally put forward some countermeasures and suggestions on how to coordinate the regional logistics industry and promote the regional economic development.