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库存量是减少原料的损失及成本的浪费是节约企业成本的关键。文章基于时间序列自回归滑动平均(ARIMA)预测模型,对JG钢铁原料库存量资料进行建模拟合。利用DPS软件,建立ARIMA预测模型,利用AIC准则法并考虑相关系数R的值以及拟合度C的大小定阶,通过拟合建模,ARIMA(1,l,1)模型较为合理。应用模型对2015年4月1日至4月5日库存量进行了预测,实现了JG钢铁原料库存量的短期预报。
Inventory is to reduce the loss of raw materials and waste of costs is the key to saving business costs. Based on the time series autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) forecasting model, the article makes a model fitting of the stock of JG steel raw materials. ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model is reasonable by using DPS software to establish ARIMA prediction model, using AIC criterion method and taking into account the value of correlation coefficient R and the degree of fit C. The model was used to forecast the stocks from April 1 to April 5, 2015, and to achieve the short-term forecast of the stock of JG steel raw materials.