采用上证沪企指数来表示股市运行情况,采用上海市消费品零售总额、进出口总量、居民信心指数、通货膨胀指数、发电量、固定资产投资额,这六个变量来表示上海市宏观经济运行情况,运用协整方法与理论进行建模分析。研究发现,上海地区存在着明显的“股经背离”现象。指数运行与宏观经济反向关系显著,上证沪企指数无法作为上海地区经济的“晴雨表”。 The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index and Shanghai Stock Index are used to indicate the operation of the stock market. These six variables are the total retail sales of consumer goods, total import and export volume, resident confidence index, inflation index, power generation and fixed asset investment. These six variables represent the macroeconomic performance of Shanghai Situation, the use of cointegration methods and theoretical modeling analysis. The study found that there is a clear “divorce ” phenomenon in Shanghai. Index operation and the macroeconomic significant inverse relationship, the Shanghai Stock Index can not be used as Shanghai’s economic “barometer.”