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2014年可能成为近3年来亏损最为严重的一年,也最有希望完成淘汰过剩母猪,从而结束自2010年开始的大周期+小周期,从而进入新一轮猪周期。2013年的中国生猪市场走势一句话概括为:生猪市场从大周期过渡至小周期,淘汰过剩产能进度拖至第3年。2013年的猪价年度均价虽然只比2012年下跌了1%,但由于成本上涨了5%以上,导致自繁自养头均盈利仅有8元。其中亏损期达到了160天。然而仔猪价格与二元母猪价格却与出栏肉猪价格形成了截然不同的走势。仔猪价格呈现明显的分水岭现象,8月底前先下跌后上
2014 may be the worst loss-making year in nearly three years and the most hopeful completion of the elimination of surplus sows, thus ending the big cycle + small cycle starting from 2010 and entering a new cycle of pigs. A summary of the trend of the Chinese hog market in 2013 is as follows: The live pig market has shifted from a large cycle to a small cycle, and the progress of phasing out excess capacity has been delayed to the third year. Although the annual average price of pork in 2013 was only 1% lower than that of 2012, the average profit of self-support and self-nourishment was only 8 yuan due to the cost increase of more than 5%. The loss period reached 160 days. However, the price of piglets and the price of two yuan butcher slaughter pigs formed a completely different trend. Piglet prices showed a clear watershed phenomenon, before the end of August before falling