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贫困脆弱性自从被作为一种前瞻性的理念由世界银行正式提出来之后,便迅速成为发展经济学的一个研究热点。然而,不同的研究者对它的定义和度量方法并不同。本文利用来自中国的农户调查数据检验预测贫困脆弱性的精确性的决定因素。我们发现:预测的精确性与贫困线和脆弱线的选择、家庭未来收入均值的计算方法密切相关。本文的发现为我们理解贫困脆弱性的度量方法以及政府从贫困脆弱性的视角制定反贫困政策提供了参考。
Since being formally put forward by the World Bank as a forward-looking concept, poverty vulnerability has quickly become a research hotspot in the field of development economics. However, different researchers define it and measure it differently. In this paper, household survey data from China is used to test the determinants of the accuracy of poverty vulnerability prediction. We find that the accuracy of forecasts is closely related to the choice of poverty line and vulnerability line, and the calculation of the mean household future income. The findings of this article provide a reference for our understanding of the measurement of poverty vulnerability and for the government’s anti-poverty policy from the perspective of poverty vulnerability.