贸易开放如何影响政府支出规模变动?补偿假说和效率假说提出了截然相反的判断。本文通过强调Rodrick模型忽略的就业调整及调整成本,在指出已有文献得出相互矛盾结论症结所在的同时,还发现:我国地方政府支出的不同细目特点各异,而且不同细目的名义与实际规模也存在不同变化趋势;贸易开放促进了我国地方政府实际投资性、转移支付支出效率的提高;除了政府支出计划性和规模变动的惯性外,实际投资性支出规模的变动主要由预期风险引致的劳动力流动和贸易引起,实际消费性支出规模的变动则是由贸易引致的负向劳动力流动、地区规模和抚养率引起,而显著影响实际转移支付规模的除预期风险引致的正向劳动力流动、贸易、抚养率外,还包括城镇化率和Wagner法则。因此,我国贸易结构的转型与升级,应尤为重视贸易、预期风险引致的不同向劳动力再配置对政府实际支出的无谓消耗。 How does trade openness affect the scale of government spending? The compensation hypothesis and efficiency hypothesis pose diametrically opposed judgments. By emphasizing the neglect of job adjustment and adjustment cost by Rodrick model, pointing out that the existing literature draws the crux of the contradictory conclusions, this dissertation also finds that the features of local government expenditure vary in detail and the notional and actual scale There are also different trends; the opening up of trade has promoted the improvement of the efficiency of actual investment and transfer payment of local governments in our country; besides the inertia of planned expenditure and scale change of government expenditure, the change of actual investment expenditure mainly consists of the labor force However, the changes in the scale of actual consumer spending are caused by the negative labor flow caused by trade, the size of the area and the dependency ratio, while the positive transfer of labor, the trade, The dependency ratio also includes the rate of urbanization and Wagner’s law. Therefore, the transformation and upgrading of China’s trade structure should lay particular emphasis on trade and the unnecessary consumption caused by the different risks caused by expected risks to the actual government expenditures due to the relocation of labor force.