超前地质预报技术是探测隧道开挖掌子面前方不良地质、降低施工风险的一项重要技术措施。为确保超前地质预报技术探测的地质信息可靠、准确,文章建立了基于属性识别理论的隧道施工超前地质预报可靠性评价模型,在综合分析预报可靠性影响因素的基础上,从预报方案、预报作业人员、预报设备、预报环境、预报管理5个方面考虑,选取综合预报方法数量、作业人员从事预报工作时间、预报设备维护频率、与预报无关设备及人员数量、预报管理合理性作为评价指标,对各影响因素评价指标进行定性与定量描述,并对其进行等级划分;对于预报可靠性评价模型中各指标权重的确定,采用简单关联函数法来确定各评价指标所占权重;通过现场跟踪调查获取的各评价指标值及构造的属性测度函数计算隧道预报区段的单指标属性测度与综合属性测度,进而应用置信度准则对隧道预报区段的预报可靠性进行评价;最后通过工程实际应用表明属性评价结果与现场实际预报的可靠性情况一致。 Advance geological forecasting technology is an important technical measure to detect bad geology in front of tunnel face and to reduce construction risk. In order to ensure reliable and accurate geologic information of advanced geologic forecasting technology, this paper established a reliability assessment model of advanced geologic forecasting of tunnel construction based on attribute identification theory. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the influencing factors of forecasting reliability, Personnel, forecasting equipment, forecasting environment and forecasting management, taking the number of integrated forecasting methods, working hours of forecasting workers, frequency of forecasting equipment maintenance, equipment and personnel unrelated to forecasting, and forecasting management rationality as evaluation indexes, The factors of each influencing factor are described qualitatively and quantitatively, and their grades are classified. For the determination of the weight of each index in the forecasting reliability evaluation model, the simple correlation function method is used to determine the weight of each evaluating index. Through the on-the-spot investigation And the constructed attribute measure function to calculate the single index attribute measure and the comprehensive attribute measure of the tunnel forecasting section, and then use the confidence criterion to evaluate the forecast reliability of the tunnel forecast section. Finally, through the practical application of the project, it is shown that the attribute Evaluation results and the scene Inter consistent reliability of the forecasts.