论文部分内容阅读
2002年中国股市的风云人物张卫星在2003年伊始就感受到了沉重。2003年1月1日的中午,这位华电投资咨询公司的首席证券分析师在发给另一位学者的信中附有一篇他才写好的文章:在这篇文章中,他提到1342点是防洪的一道大堤,不能轻易被突破,否则我们将付出极大的代价。张卫星的文章还没有发出来——2003年1月2日,新年股市的第一个交易日。股市并没有新年新迹象,跌势依然在蔓延着。当日,沪证指数下跌37.02点,收盘于1320.63点。虽然在此后的1月14日,大盘没有任何预兆地创造了中国股市自2002年6.24行情以来最大的一次单日涨幅,但随后的走势证明这样的上涨只是昙花一现。当然,在新的一年中这是一个中国的股民不愿意看到的开局,但无可抑制的是:中国股市的2003年就是毫无道理地以这样的方式走向了我们。证券市场在低迷向下的惯性中继续与宏观经济的大好形势背道而驰的不正常局面也继续上演着。在这种悖论中,中国证监会几乎在2002年的最后一个星期完成了近三年来最大的人事变动,业内人士称之为“大换血”。谁都无法知道,这样的“大换血”将为中国股市带来什么。而著名学者刘纪鹏认为,中国股市之所以一直在“跌跌不休”,最根本的原因是中国资本市场改革和发展的先后顺序已经由于不尊重国情和不坚持渐变稳定发展的20年?
Zhang Weixing, a man of the Chinese stock market in 2002, felt heavy at the beginning of 2003. At noon on January 1, 2003, the chief securities analyst at Huadian Investment Consulting, in a letter to another scholar, attached an article he wrote: In this article, he mentioned 1342 Point is a flood control embankment, can not easily be a breakthrough, otherwise we will pay a great price. Zhang’s article has not been sent yet - January 2, 2003, the first trading day of the New Year’s stock market. There is no new sign of the New Year in the stock market, the decline is still spreading. The same day, Shanghai Stock Index fell 37.02 points to close at 1320.63 points. Although the broader market on January 14 this year without any warning to create the Chinese stock market since 6.24 market in 2002 the biggest one-day rise, but then the trend proved that such a rise is only short-lived. Of course, this is a start to be unwilling to see by Chinese investors in the new year. But it can not be suppressed that China’s stock market went to us in such a way in 2003 in no sense. The abnormal situation that the stock market continues to run counter to the great macroeconomic situation during the downturn has continued to unfold. In this paradox, CSRC completed its largest personnel change in almost three years in the last week of 2002, which industry insiders called a “big shake-up.” No one can know that such a “big shake-up” will bring what the Chinese stock market. The famous scholar Liu Jipeng believes that the reason why the Chinese stock market has been “stumbled endlessly” is that the fundamental reason for the reform and development of China’s capital market has been because of its lack of respect for its national conditions and its steady and gradual development over the past 20 years?