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2014年以来,国内违约债券规模达到了506.9亿元,累计违约数量达89只,违约债券在规模和数量增大的同时,不断由产能过剩行业向其他行业传导,由民营企业向国有企业传导,尤其是2016年以来,国有企业债券违约进入高发期。在债券违约事件中,由于期限错配导致的流动性危机是最主要原因,同时也存在大量企业长期亏损、资不抵债的情况,不同的违约原因为违约债券投资提供了结构性投资机会。在对现有违约债券处置分析的基础上提出了交易性投资策略和债转股投资策略。
Since 2014, the scale of domestic default bonds has reached 50.69 billion yuan, with a total of 89 defaults. As the size and number of default bonds have increased, the default bonds have been continuously transmitted from industries with excess capacity to other industries and conducted by private enterprises to state-owned enterprises. Especially since 2016, the default of state-owned corporate bonds has entered a period of high incidence. In the event of bond default, the liquidity crisis due to the maturity mismatch is the most important reason. There are also a large number of enterprises that suffer from long-term losses and insolvencies. The different reasons for the default provide a structured investment opportunity for default bond investment. Based on the analysis of disposal of existing defaulted bonds, this paper puts forward the strategy of transactional investment and debt-equity-to-equity investment.