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目的探索输入性传染病预警指标体系,为输入性传染病防控提供依据。方法采用文献法和德尔菲法(Delphi)建立输入性传染病预警指标体系,并对指标获得性、必要性及权重分析。结果两轮Delphi法咨询专家的积极系数分别为100.00%和77.27%,专家对指标熟悉程度均在7分以上,权威系数在8分以上。预警指标体系有3大类38项指标,指标权重系数接近,均在0.02以上;常见传染病病例的聚集程度,实验室高致病性病原微生物菌(毒)种或者样本的被盗、被抢、丢失和泄漏事件发生,省内其他地区传染病疫情的通告,人口密集单位(如幼儿园,学校,工地等)发现症状相似病人,人口密集单位(如幼儿园、学校、工地等)的缺勤率及因病缺勤率增加等5项指标的相对重要性居前5位。结论预警指标体系涵盖了传染病流行不同阶段及其社会和自然影响因素,应用时需根据疾病和地区的特点进行指标的取舍和修订。
Objective To explore the index system for early warning of sexually transmitted diseases and provide basis for the prevention and control of sexually transmitted diseases. Methods The literature and Delphi method were used to establish the index system of early warning of imported infectious diseases, and the indicators were acquired, necessary and weight analyzed. Results The positive coefficients of two Delphi experts consulted were 100.00% and 77.27% respectively, and the experts were all familiar with the index above 7 points and the authority coefficient above 8 points. The early warning index system has 38 indicators in 3 major categories and the index weight coefficients are close to each other, all of which are above 0.02. The aggregation degree of common infectious diseases, stolen and robbed of the highly pathogenic microbial strains or samples in the laboratory , Loss and spill incidents, notices of outbreaks of communicable diseases in other parts of the province, absenteeism rates among densely-populated units (such as kindergartens, schools, construction sites, etc.) found in densely populated units such as kindergartens, schools and construction sites, The relative importance of five indicators such as the increase in absence due to illness was among the top five. Conclusion The early-warning index system covers different stages of the epidemic of infectious diseases and their social and natural factors. Applications should be based on the characteristics of the disease and the region to choose and amend the indicators.