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针对公路客运量预测问题,在建立灰色GM(1,1)模型和三次指数平滑模型的基础上,利用最优加权系数法建立组合模型来对客运量进行预测。以此来避免单一模型的不足,从而提高模型的预测精度。通过2005-2009年安顺到贵阳的贵黄高速客运量模型的检验,证明组合模型是合理、可行的,并且具有较高的预测精度。
Aiming at the problem of highway passenger volume forecasting, the gray GM (1,1) model and the three exponential smoothing model are established, and the combined model is established by using the optimal weighting coefficient method to predict the passenger volume. In order to avoid the lack of a single model, thereby improving the prediction accuracy of the model. Through the test of Guizhou high-speed passenger traffic model from Anshun to Guiyang in 2005-2009, it is proved that the combination model is reasonable and feasible and has a high prediction accuracy.