在西宁市水资源规划思路的基础上,针对西宁市的两个规划年(2005年、2010年)的不同保证率(P=50%、P=75%、P=95%)水资源供需作了预测分析,进行了供需水平衡预测。说明了兴建“引大济湟”工程是根本解决西宁市2010年后缺水的关键途径,从而保证城市水资源可持续利用,实现水资源对经济可持续发展的支持。 Based on the idea of ​​water resources planning in Xining City, according to the different guarantee rates (P = 50%, P = 75%, P = 95%) of water supply and demand in two planning years (2005 and 2010) Forecast analysis, carried out a water supply and demand balance forecast. It shows that the project of “building large-scale construction projects” is the key way to solve the water shortage in Xining City after 2010 so as to ensure the sustainable utilization of urban water resources and support the sustainable development of water resources.