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在分析影响旅客出行方式选择行为因素的基础上,根据Logit模型,选择经济性、快速性、方便性、舒适度、安全性为5个衡量指标并建立其广义费用函数,推导出客运专线修建前后城际旅客对各出行方式选择变化的计算模型,利用相关研究结果和极大似然估计法,确定模型参数。最后以郑西客运专线为例进行了模拟计算。结果表明,客运专线的技术经济特征决定了其能够给城际旅客带来较高的效用,客运专线修建后,选择铁路出行的城际旅客比例将大大提高。
Based on the analysis of the behavioral factors influencing the choice of traveler’s travel modes, according to the Logit model, the five measures of economy, rapidity, convenience, comfort and safety are selected and their generalized cost functions are established. Intercity passengers choose the mode of travel choice changes, using the relevant research results and maximum likelihood estimation method to determine the model parameters. Finally, Zheng-Zheng Passenger Dedicated Line as an example for simulation. The results show that the technical and economic characteristics of the passenger dedicated line determine that it can bring high utility to intercity passengers. After the construction of the passenger dedicated line, the proportion of intercity passengers who choose to travel by rail will be greatly increased.