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考察财政政策对居民消费的影响,是衡量积极财政政策有效性的重要部分。从理论上分析,财政政策主要通过可支配收入、居民预期来影响居民消费。考虑到我国城乡的差异,本文将居民区分为城镇居民和农村居民,利用1978—2010年数据考察财政政策对城镇居民和农村居民消费的影响,发现我国城乡居民收入平均水平、政府财政支出、未来收入不确定性和未来支出不确定性是制约居民消费需求的主要因素。根据各回归系数可知,影响居民消费最主要的因素是居民的可支配收入,而影响居民可支配收入的关键因素是税收和政府的财政政策;国家财政支出对城镇居民消费需求的传导效应仍有限。
Examining the impact of fiscal policy on household consumption is an important part of measuring the effectiveness of the proactive fiscal policy. From the theoretical analysis, fiscal policy mainly affects disposable income and residents ’expectation to influence residents’ consumption. Taking into account the differences between urban and rural areas in our country, this paper divides the residents into urban residents and rural residents, and uses the data of 1978-2010 to examine the impact of fiscal policies on the urban and rural residents’ consumption and to find out the average income level of urban and rural residents, government fiscal expenditure, future Uncertainty of income and future expenditure uncertainty are the main factors restricting the consumption demand of residents. According to the regression coefficients, the most important factor affecting residents’ consumption is the disposable income of residents. The key factors that affect the disposable income of residents are the fiscal policies of taxation and government. The transmission effect of state financial expenditure on consumer demand of urban residents is still limited .