可操作地震预测(OEF)是不断更新和发布基于物理机制的短期(数日)破坏性地震发生概率的一种实践。尽管我们赞赏OEF的高尚意图,而且使用地震活动性进行短期预测分析具有一定的科学价值,可是我们仍然担心广泛推广短期地震预测,可能让公众相信对地震的防范程度可以像对待天气预报一样在数天或数周的时间尺度内波动。支持OEF的科学家的确认识到长期预测(数十年或数百年)的重要性。Jordan[1]指 Operational Earthquake Prediction (OEF) is a practice that continuously updates and publishes the probability of short term (days) destructive earthquakes based on physical mechanisms. Although we appreciate the noble intentions of the OEF and the short-term predictive analysis using seismicity is of scientific value, we are still concerned that the widespread promotion of short-term earthquake prediction may give the public confidence that the degree of precautionary measures against earthquakes can be the same as for the weather forecast Days or weeks fluctuate in time scales. Indeed, scientists supporting OEF recognize the importance of long-term forecasts (decades or centuries). Jordan [1] refers to