经济的韧性来自于新经济成分的成长,新旧动能转化一直在自然地进行着,数据是不会说谎的。对比过去三年上市公司的资本开支平均增速,这种新旧经济的分化是不言而喻的。一方面,传统产业年均资本开支都在负增长。虽然供给侧改革给上游资源性行业和有垄断优势国企带来了“蛋糕再分配”红利,但价格上涨又会抑制中下游实际需求和利润,最终带来名义周期的均值回归。幻影周期行情演绎到极致便是剧烈的反向,也即反身性和波动性。另一方面,A股有一半行业 The resilience of the economy stems from the growth of the new economy, and the conversion of old and new kinetic energy has been going on spontaneously and the data will not lie. Compared with the average growth rate of capital expenditures of listed companies in the past three years, the differentiation of the old economy and the new one is self-evident. On the one hand, the average annual capital expenditures of traditional industries are negative growth. Although the supply-side reform has brought “redistribution of cake” dividends to the upstream resource industries and monopolistic SOEs, the price rise will, in turn, dampen the actual demand and profits of the middle and lower reaches, eventually leading to the return of the mean of the nominal cycles. Phantom cycle market interpretation is the extreme extreme is the reverse, that is, reflexivity and volatility. On the other hand, A shares have half the industry