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通过对2000-2012年吉林省第三产业增加值与国内生产总值这一时间序列数据进行平稳性检验、协整分析、格兰杰因果关系检验以及构建误差修正模型,研究吉林省服务业发展与经济增长之间的动态关系,结果表明:吉林省服务业发展与经济增长之间存在长期均衡的稳定关系,而且长期内服务业的发展与经济的增长具有双向的Granger因果关系。因此,吉林省应从优先发展生产性服务业、加快信息服务公共平台建设、完善现代金融服务体系、突出发展吉林特色服务业来加快服务业的发展进而促进全省经济的持续健康稳定增长。
Through the stability test, co-integration analysis, Granger causality test and error correction model of the time-series data of the added value of tertiary industry and GDP in Jilin Province from 2000 to 2012, this paper studies the development of service industry in Jilin Province And the economic growth. The results show that there is a long-term balanced and stable relationship between the service industry development and economic growth in Jilin Province, and the two-way Granger causality between the development of service industry and the economic growth in the long term. Therefore, Jilin Province should give priority to the development of producer services, speed up the construction of public platform for information services, improve the modern financial service system, and give prominence to the development of special service industries in Jilin Province so as to speed up the development of service industry and thus promote the sustained, healthy and stable growth of the province’s economy.