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明确城市环境空气质量的敏感因素和敏感度,是改善城市环境空气质量的基础和前提。以第一阶段实施新空气质量标准的74个城市为例,基于逆数据包络分析模型,估算城市环境空气质量对经济和人口因素的敏感度。结果表明:GDP、工业增加值、建筑业增加值、固定资产投资、财政收入和人口密度指标分别提高5%,城镇化率提高1个百分点,74个城市环境空气质量将分别下降0.124%、0.165%、0.376%、0.466%、0.097%、0.390%和0.739%,各区域和各城市环境空气质量敏感因素和敏感程度差异较大,珠三角>长三角>京津冀;西部>东部>中部>东北。环境空气质量对人口集聚的敏感程度大于经济增长的敏感度。如不尽快推动经济转型升级,适度、有序推进城镇化,实现全面建成小康社会的目标和新型城镇化的目标都将总体降低城市环境空气质量。
Determining the sensitive factors and sensitivities of urban ambient air quality is the basis and premise for improving urban ambient air quality. Taking the 74 cities implementing the new air quality standard in the first stage as an example, this paper estimates the sensitivity of urban ambient air quality to economic and demographic factors based on the inverse data envelopment analysis model. The results show that the GDP, industrial added value, added value of construction, fixed asset investment, fiscal revenue and population density index increase by 5% and urbanization rate increase by 1% respectively. The ambient air quality of 74 cities will decrease by 0.124% and 0.165 respectively %, 0.376%, 0.466%, 0.097%, 0.390% and 0.739% respectively. There were significant differences in sensitivity and sensitivity of ambient air quality among different regions and cities. The PRD> Yangtze River Delta> Beijing-Tianjin- northeast. The sensitivity of ambient air quality to population concentration is greater than the sensitivity of economic growth. Without the promotion of economic restructuring and upgrading as soon as possible, the goal of moderately and orderly urbanization, the goal of building a moderately prosperous society and the goal of a new type of urbanization will all reduce the overall ambient air quality in the cities.