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根据城市供水系统不同子系统结构功能关系的高度关联性及水流流向的单向性特征,将风险传播理论用于供水系统风险分析研究。通过对供水系统风险传播条件和传播基本模式的分析,建立了供水系统风险传播数学模型,提出了一种新的城市供水系统风险分析方法。该方法根据不同子系统面临的风险,基于风险传播递归算法逐级计算,最终得到供水系统的总风险,很好地解决了供水系统总体风险评价的系统性问题,可用于设计或改造供水系统时的风险分析评价。
According to the high correlation of structure and function of different subsystems of urban water supply system and the one-way characteristic of water flow direction, risk propagation theory is applied to the risk analysis of water supply system. Based on the analysis of the risk transmission conditions and basic modes of distribution in the water supply system, a mathematic model of risk transmission in water supply system was established and a new risk analysis method of urban water supply system was proposed. This method calculates the total risk of the water supply system according to the risk of different subsystems based on the recursion algorithm of risk propagation step by step and solves the systematic problem of the overall risk assessment of the water supply system and can be used to design or modify the water supply system Risk analysis and evaluation.