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本文实证考察了微观企业的会计盈余信息与宏观的未来GDP增长率之间的关系。研究结果表明,加总的季度会计盈余增长率是未来名义季度GDP增长率的一个重要的增量预测指标。然而,目前的宏观经济分析师在对GDP增长率进行预测时,并没有考虑到会计盈余信息的这种预测有用性,从而导致其GDP增长率预测误差可以被加总的会计盈余增长率所解释。另外,本文研究还发现,在2007年我国实行新会计准则后,加总的会计盈余增长率对于未来GDP增长率的预测作用得到了显著提高。这在一定程度上说明,新会计准则的实施提高了会计盈余的信息有用性。
This paper empirically examines the relationship between accounting earnings information of micro-enterprises and the macro-growth rate of future GDP. The results show that the aggregate quarterly earnings growth is an important incremental indicator of the nominal quarterly GDP growth rate in the future. However, the current macroeconomic analysts do not consider the usefulness of this forecasting of accounting earnings information in forecasting the GDP growth rate. As a result, the forecast error in GDP growth rate can be explained by the added accounting earnings growth rate . In addition, this study also found that after the implementation of the new accounting standards in China in 2007, the aggregate accounting earnings growth rate for the future GDP growth rate has been significantly improved. To a certain extent, this shows that the implementation of the new accounting standards has improved the usefulness of accounting earnings information.