结合工程实例,应用灰色系统理论,视周期来压为灾变事件,采用灾变预测转化为数列预测的方法,并将循环次数代替周期来压步距建立了灰色系统GM(1,1)模型和Verhulst模型,同时结合指数回归和对数回归拟合对比分析。分析结果表明,GM(1,1)模型适用于对周期来压步距进行短期预测,而Verhulst模型适用于进行长期预测,具有更高的精度。 Combining with engineering examples, gray system theory is applied to treat cataclysmic events as epochs. The method of catastrophic prediction into sequence prediction is adopted, and the gray system GM (1,1) model and Verhulst Model, combined with exponential regression and logistic regression fitting comparison analysis. The analysis results show that the GM (1,1) model is suitable for short-term prediction of periodic pressure steps, while Verhulst model is suitable for long-term prediction with higher accuracy.