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房地产去库存问题是中国近些年许多城市存在的严重问题,但现有文献并未深入研究人口流动对去库存的影响。本文使用2003-2014年中国46个城市流动人口和住房市场数据考察了人口流动和住房供给弹性对住房库存的影响。研究发现,人口流入和经济增长有助于去库存,但高房价不利于去库存;供给弹性越大的三四五线城市,去库存问题越严重,越不利于发挥流动人口的作用;限购政策对去库存无效果。因此,应通过调节人口流动和住房供给弹性以及降房价和促进经济持续增长因地制宜地去库存。
The de-stocking of real estate is a serious problem existing in many cities in China in recent years. However, the existing literature does not study in depth the impact of population movements on inventory de-stocking. This paper uses the data of floating population and housing market in 46 cities of China from 2003 to 2014 to examine the impact of population flow and housing supply elasticity on housing inventory. The study found that population inflow and economic growth help to inventory, but the high prices are not conducive to inventory; supply elasticity of the larger cities in the 345 line, the more serious the problem of inventory, the less conducive to the role of the floating population; Restrictions on purchase policy No effect on the inventory. Therefore, stockpiling should be done on a local basis by adjusting the mobility of population and supply elasticity of housing, as well as lowering prices and promoting sustained economic growth.