有关自主创业与农民贫困的研究多集中于讨论创业的即期效应而忽视了远期效果。借助CHIP2013微观调查数据,实证检验我国农民自主创业对贫困脆弱性的影响。研究结果表明,农民自主创业能够显著降低家庭未来陷入贫困的概率,这一作用在非贫困家庭是有效的,而对贫困家庭并不显著。使用不同的匹配方法和创业指标进行的稳健性检验也支持了前述结果。本研究的主要贡献在于用前瞻性视角对农民创业的减贫效果进行了再评估,希望对政府合理制定相关政策方针提供有益参考。 Most studies on entrepreneurship and peasants’ poverty focused on discussing the immediate effects of entrepreneurship while ignoring the long-term effects. With the CHIP2013 micro-survey data, the empirical test is conducted to examine the impact of peasant entrepreneurship on poverty vulnerability in China. The results show that peasant self-employment can significantly reduce the probability of the family getting into poverty, which is effective for non-poor families and not significant for poor families. The robustness test using different matching methods and business indicators also supports the aforementioned results. The main contribution of this study is to re-evaluate the poverty reduction effect of peasant entrepreneurship with a forward-looking perspective and hope to provide useful reference for the government to formulate relevant policy guidelines rationally.