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辨风看向去年下半年以来,也门国内局势不断恶化。目前胡塞武装组织已占据了也门北部的大多数城市,并向西南部进攻,其间政府军和胡塞武装多次发生激烈冲突。3月份以来,以沙特为代表的中东国家对也门武装组织发动军事打击,同时美国也表态对沙特提供后勤和情报支持,使得该地区地缘政治局势急剧恶化,推动国际油价快速攀升。但仔细分析也门产量、出口量及地理位置发现,这一事件对石油市场的实质性冲击较为有限。
In the second half of last year, the situation in Yemen has been deteriorating. Currently, Al-Qaeda has occupied most of the northern Yemen city and has attacked the southwest. In the meantime, the government forces and the Houthi armed forces fought many violent clashes. Since March, Middle East countries represented by Saudi Arabia have launched a military strike against the Yemeni armed groups. At the same time, the United States has also provided logistical and intelligence support to Saudi Arabia, drastically worsening the geopolitical situation in the region and rapidly boosting international oil prices. However, careful analysis of Yemen’s output, export volume and geographical location shows that the incident has a limited impact on the oil market.