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为分析合肥市的降水变化规律,根据合肥市1951~2015年共65年的逐月降水资料,采用线性倾向估计法、累积距平法、Mann-Kendall法和Morlet小波分析法分析了合肥市降水年际变化趋势和周期特征,采用不均匀系数、完全调节系数和集中度等指标分析了合肥市降水的年内分配特征。结果表明,合肥市降水量呈不显著增加趋势,3~5、9、10、12月的降水量呈减少变化,其余各月降水量呈增加变化,仅有6月降水量变化趋势通过了90%置信度检验;15年主周期尺度下的降水丰枯交替明显;降水年内分配较不均匀,主要集中于夏季,年内分配各特征指标呈微弱增加趋势。研究成果可为水资源管理工作提供指导。
In order to analyze the precipitation variation in Hefei City, according to monthly precipitation data from 1951 to 2015 in Hefei City, a total of 65 years of precipitation data were used to analyze the precipitation in Hefei using the linear tendency estimation method, the cumulative distance method, Mann-Kendall method and Morlet wavelet analysis Interannual variation trend and period characteristics, the annual distribution characteristics of precipitation in Hefei were analyzed using such indicators as non-uniform coefficient, complete adjustment coefficient and concentration degree. The results showed that precipitation in Hefei City showed no significant increase trend, precipitation decreased in March, May, September, December and December, while precipitation in other months showed an increase, only the trend of June precipitation passed 90 % Confidence test; precipitation and wilt on the main periodic scale of 15 years alternated obviously; the distribution of precipitation was less uniform during the year, mainly concentrated in the summer, and the distribution of each characteristic index showed a slight increase trend during the year. The research results can provide guidance for water resources management.