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基于过程控制和有限理性预期理论,文章将产业结构变动分为市场自发式和附加预期式两种。自发式产业结构变动既可置经济于增长大道,也可因市场失灵而陷经济于囹圄。附加预期产业结构变动虽以产业升级为导向,但诸多不可控因素致使规制失灵而导致预期与现实背道而驰。产业结构成功升级的关键在于既要适时纠正自发式产业结构变动引起的市场失灵,又要确保政府和投资主体关于产业前景预期的一致性,最大限度避免规制失灵。
Based on the theory of process control and the theory of bounded rationality, the article divides the changes of industrial structure into two types: spontaneous market and additional expected type. Spontaneous changes in the industrial structure can not only set the economy on the road to growth, but also due to market failure trapped in economic stagnation. Additional expected changes in industrial structure, although guided by industrial upgrading, but many uncontrollable factors lead to regulatory failure, resulting in expectations and reality runs counter to. The key to the successful escalation of industrial structure lies in the fact that it is necessary to correct market failures caused by spontaneous industrial structure changes in a timely manner and to ensure that the government and investment entities are expected to be in line with industry expectations and to prevent regulatory failures to the maximum extent possible.