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我国经济增长大致呈现9年左右的周期性特征,经历全球金融危机以后,我国经济的冬季将会过去,“十二五”期间我国将会迎来经济的春季、夏季甚至秋季,这是经济发展的较快阶段。我们将进入一个低碳经济、低碳能源、以及低碳电力的时代,这也对我国经济发展提出了严峻挑战。本文采用低碳电力模型,模拟结果显示:2015年我国GDP将达到42万亿元(2005年价)左右,需电量约5.6万亿～5.85万亿kWh,届时需要发电装机12.3亿～12.9亿kW左右,能效电厂约6700万～7600万kW左右(虚拟电厂,即通过需求侧管理可以减少的发电装机)。“十二五”期间能效电厂发电量将达到5074亿kWh(用户节约的电量),可以节约发电用煤1.82亿tce,减少二氧化碳排放4.5亿t,以及其他污染物的排放。建设坚强的智能电网也是我国实施低碳能源战略的重要举措。
China’s economic growth shows a cyclical pattern of about 9 years. After the global financial crisis, the winter of China’s economy will be over. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, China will usher in an economy of spring, summer and even autumn, The faster stage of economic development. We will enter an era of low-carbon economy, low-carbon energy and low-carbon electricity, which also poses a severe challenge to our country’s economic development. In this paper, a low-carbon electricity model is used. The simulation results show that in 2015, China’s GDP will reach 42 trillion yuan (2005 price), and its electricity demand will be about 5.6 trillion to 5.85 trillion kWh. By then, it will generate 1.23 billion to 1.29 billion kW Or so, about 67 million to 76 million kW of energy-efficiency power plants (virtual power plants, which can reduce installed capacity through demand-side management). During the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, the energy efficiency of power plants will reach 504.4 billion kWh (user-saved electricity), which will save 182 million tons of coal for power generation and reduce 450 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions and other pollutants. Building a strong smart grid is also an important measure for China to implement its low-carbon energy strategy.