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在总结有关海上大风预测研究成果的基础上,根据极值理论合理选取预测极值风速的极值分布计算模型:Gumbel分布和Poisson-Gumbel分布。根据山东近岸黄海26 a的风速观测资料,采用分风向统计数据和投影法处理数据,充分考虑风向和相邻风向的影响,形成十六个风向的年极值序列和过程极值序列样本;最后,用两种模型计算得到各个风向的极值风速预测结果,对比不考虑风向的计算结果,分析出黄海海域海洋风灾发生的时间规律和致灾风向,并对黄海海域的防风减灾提出合理建议。
On the basis of summarizing the results of the study on the offshore wind gale forecast, the extremum distribution of the extreme wind speed is reasonably selected according to the extremum theory: Gumbel distribution and Poisson-Gumbel distribution. According to the wind speed observation data of 26 a in the Yellow Sea near Shandong coast, the statistical data and projection method are used to deal with the data, taking full account of the influence of the wind direction and the adjacent wind direction to form the annual extreme value sequence and the process extreme value sequence sample of 16 wind directions; Finally, the prediction results of the extreme wind speeds of all the wind directions are obtained by using two models. By comparing the calculation results without considering the wind direction, the time law and the wind direction of the marine wind disaster in the Yellow Sea are analyzed, and reasonable suggestions are made for windbreak and disaster reduction in the Yellow Sea .