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笔者试图以资本产出比解释中国经济增长现象,并猜想近年的低增长主要是资本产出比速率与资本形成速率变动同步造成的。从资本深化和技术进步两个角度,对资本产出比速率分解,发现目前中国资本产出比不断升高的主要原因,来源于资本深化程度不断加剧和目前的技术进步水平不稳定。最后提出通过不断提高技术,同时优化技术选择偏差,降低资本深化程度,使资本产出比速率不断下降达到经济增长上升的变动模式。
The author tries to explain the phenomenon of China’s economic growth by the capital-output-ratio, and supposes that the low growth in recent years is mainly caused by the synchronization of the rate of capital output and the rate of capital formation. From the perspectives of capital deepening and technological progress, the paper analyzes the ratio of capital output to its rate and finds that the main reason for the rising output-to-capital ratio in China at present is the deepening of capital deepening and the current level of technological advancement being unstable. Finally, it puts forward the changing mode of increasing economic growth through continuous improvement of technology, optimization of technology selection bias, reduction of capital deepening and continuous decrease of capital output ratio.