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东南太平洋茎柔鱼(Dosidicus gigas)是世界范围内最重要的经济头足类之一,也是我国鱿钓渔船的重要捕捞对象。本文根据2003—2012年中国大陆的渔业数据和FAO统计的东南太平洋茎柔鱼产量数据,利用Schaefer模型,基于贝叶斯统计方法,分基准方案和敏感性分析方案对东南太平洋茎柔鱼资源进行评估,并对其管理策略做了风险分析。结果表明,年渔获量和CPUE数据为贝叶斯资源评估模型提供了足够多的信息。2003—2012年捕捞死亡率低于目标参考点F0.1,渔获量小于最大可持续产量,资源量大于目标参考点Bmsy,资源状况良好,未遭受过度捕捞。在基准方案下,最大可持续产量为142.9万吨,维持最大可持续产量的资源量为214.7万吨,此时的捕捞死亡率为0.682;在敏感性分析方案下,最大的可持续产量为152.5万吨,维持最大可持续产量的资源量为229.6万吨,此时的捕捞死亡率为0.691。决策分析和风险分析表明,当捕获率设定为0.3以下时,资源能够得到较好的养护,资源崩溃的可能性很低。将捕获率设定在0.3左右是最适的管理策略,此时的持续产量为99万吨左右。
Dosidicus gigas is one of the most important economic cephalopods in the world and is also an important fishing target for squid fishing vessels in China. Based on the fishery data from 2003 to 2012 in China and FAO data on Southeastern Pacific Squid and Salmon Production, the Schaefer model, the Bayesian statistical method, the sub-benchmarking scheme and the sensitivity analysis were used to estimate the Siphon squid resources in the southeast Pacific Ocean Assess, and conduct a risk analysis of its management strategy. The results show that the annual catches and CPUE data provide enough information for the Bayesian resource assessment model. The fishing fatality rate for 2003-2012 is lower than the target reference point F0.1, the catch is less than the maximum sustainable yield, and the resource amount is greater than the target reference point Bmsy. The resources are in good condition and are not over-exploited. Under the baseline scenario, the maximum sustainable production was 1,429,000 tons and the resource to sustain maximum sustainable production was 2,147,000 tons, the fishing mortality rate at this time was 0.682; under the sensitivity analysis program, the maximum sustainable production was 152.5 Tons of tons of resources to sustain maximum sustainable production were 2,296,000 tons, with a fishing fatality rate of 0.691 at this time. Decision analysis and risk analysis show that when the capture rate is set below 0.3, the resources can be well conserved and the probability of resource collapse is low. The capture rate is set at about 0.3 is the most appropriate management strategy, this time the continuous output of 99 million tons.