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目的分析南京市常见传染病发病的季节分布特征和变动情况,为传染病防控提供科学依据。方法应用集中度和圆形分布法进行季节性分析,用控制图预警模型对月实际发病率进行“流行”预警。结果南京市常见传染病中乙型脑炎有严格的季节性。麻疹、风疹、流脑和疟疾有明显的季节性,麻疹、风疹和流脑高发在春季,疟疾高发在夏季。百日咳、流腮、流感、痢疾和出血热有一定的季节性。甲肝、乙肝、猩红热、水痘、伤寒和手足口病全年各月发病相差不大。乙肝和菌痢季节性呈逐年减弱趋势,风疹季节性在逐年增强。甲肝、伤寒和菌痢的发病态势不稳定。结论根据传染病的时间聚集性分布特征,制定相应的措施,以达到预防和控制疾病的发生。
Objective To analyze the seasonal distribution and changes of the common infectious diseases in Nanjing and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of infectious diseases. Methods The methods of concentration and circular distribution were used for seasonal analysis, and the monthly actual incidence rate was prewired by using the control chart early warning model. Results In Nanjing, infectious encephalitis was strictly seasonal. Measles, rubella, meningitis and malaria are clearly seasonal and measles, rubella and meningitis are high in the spring and malaria is high in the summer. Pertussis, gills, flu, dysentery and hemorrhagic fever have some seasonal effects. Hepatitis A, hepatitis B, scarlet fever, chickenpox, typhoid fever and hand, foot and mouth disease all year round, the incidence is not much difference. Hepatitis B and bacillary dysentery showed a trend of declining year by year, seasonal increase in rubella year by year. Hepatitis A, typhoid fever and bacillary dysentery incidence unstable. Conclusion According to the characteristics of temporal distribution of infectious diseases, corresponding measures are formulated to prevent and control the occurrence of diseases.