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首先简要介绍了黄河月水文模型，然后在分析气温变化对黄河流域蒸发能力影响的基础上，采取假定气候方案，分析了黄河主要产流区径流对气候变化的敏感性，最后根据全球气候模型ＧＣＭｓ输出的降水、气温结果，估算了温室效应对主要产流区水资源的影响，并进一步分析得出：黄河未来几十年径流量呈减少趋势，汛期径流和年径流约分别减少２５．４和 ３５． ７亿 ｍ３，其中兰州以上减少最多，占总减少量的一半以上。
Based on the analysis of the effect of temperature change on the evaporation capacity of the Yellow River Basin, a hypothetical climate program was adopted to analyze the sensitivity of the main runoff in the Yellow River to climate change. Finally, according to the global climate model GCMs The output of precipitation and temperature results, the impact of the greenhouse effect on the water resources in the main runoff areas was estimated and further analysis shows that the runoff of the Yellow River tends to decrease in the next few decades, and the runoff in the flood season and the annual runoff decrease by about 25.4 and 35. 700 million m3, of which the largest reduction in Lanzhou, accounting for more than half of the total reduction.