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北京是一个大都市,是中国的政治和教育中心.然而,北京地处降水量较低的地区,一直需要努力才能提供勉强够的水资源以满足其日益增长的用水需求.研究了北京市水资源供需平衡的历史和未来趋势.北京的水务历史数据得以收集和整理,并被用于研究北京供需水的历史行为.系统动力学(SD)建模可以模拟供水系统中复杂的综合关系.一个SD模型根据整理的历史数据得以构建.通过比较模拟数据与历史数据,北京的供需水关系SD模型的有效性得以验证和校正.验证后的SD模型被用于预测未来城市水平衡的变化.“,”Beijing is a metropolis and the center of politics and education of China. However, located in the region with a low level of rainfall, Beijing has been struggling with supplying water resources to meet its growing demand.The past and future trend of the water supply and demand balance in Beijing is studied.Historical data is collected and compiled for learning its past behaviors. The system dynamics (SD) modeling can simulate the complicated and integrated relationships in water supply and demand system.An SD model is then constructed based on compiled historical data. The SD model is validated by comparing simulated data with historical data before it is used for forecasting future changes in the water balance of the city.