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为解决传统风险矩阵(CRM)元素等级分配的非一致性问题,提出一种考虑风险决策者认知不确定性的风险矩阵分析方法。首先,采用等级序数“乘法原则”计算风险指数,并将风险指数作为风险矩阵元素等级分配的依据。其次,引入风险决策者关注度系数,用来描述风险潜在信息的影响,并以指数的形式修正传统风险指数计算模型。最后,将修正后的连续概率后果分布(CPCD)映射到CRM。以风险指数最大化原则分配风险矩阵元素等级。运用该方法,分析某航天发射场某型低温液氢加注系统风险等级量化过程。结果表明,采用修正后的风险指数计算模型,能够得到不同加注工序不同关注度系数的风险等级分配方案,风险决策者的认知不确定性对低温液氢加注风险等级分配有影响。
In order to solve the problem of inconsistency in the ranking of elements of traditional risk matrix (CRM), a risk matrix analysis method considering the cognitive uncertainty of risk decision makers is proposed. First, we use the ordinal number “principle of multiplication ” to calculate the risk index and use the risk index as the basis for the allocation of the risk matrix elements. Secondly, we introduce the degree of concern of risk decision makers to describe the impact of potential risk information and revise the traditional risk index calculation model in the form of index. Finally, the modified continuous probability distribution (CPCD) is mapped to CRM. Risk matrix elements are assigned the risk index maximization principle. This method is used to analyze the quantification of the risk level of a certain hydrogen cryogenic liquid hydrogen injection system in a space launch site. The results show that using the modified risk index calculation model, the risk level distribution schemes with different degrees of attention for different filling processes can be obtained, and the cognitive uncertainty of risk decision makers has an impact on the allocation of risk level of liquid hydrogen injection.