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回顾了南疆铁路沿线五地州的近18年以来的城镇化进程及其发展变化情况,从城市化水平这个侧面来分析了五地州的城镇发展状况;同时,根据五地州1990—2007年的统计数据,选取综合城市化水平测量指标后,利用SPSS统计学软件,采用回归分析方法,建立了非农业人口及总人口随年份变化的回归方程,陈述了该地区城镇化发展特征,分析了该地区城镇化发展的限制因素;在对总人口及非农业人口的变化进行预测的基础上,对南疆铁路沿线地区将来20年的城镇化发展进行拟预测及分析,最后拟提出加快该地区社会经济发展而促进城镇化快速、持续、全面发展的建议。
Reviewed the process of urbanization and its development and changes since the 18 prefectures of South Xinjiang Railway in the past 18 years, analyzed the urban development in the five states from the aspect of urbanization level. At the same time, Year, select the comprehensive urbanization level measurement index, the use of SPSS statistical software, the use of regression analysis methods, the establishment of the non-agricultural population and the total population changes with the year regression equation, state the characteristics of urbanization in the region, analysis Based on the prediction of the changes of the total population and the non-agricultural population, the paper predicts and analyzes the urbanization in the area along the South Xinjiang Railway in the next 20 years. Finally, it proposes to speed up the development of the urbanization in the region. Regional socio-economic development and promote urbanization rapid, sustained and all-round development of the proposal.