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短期波动和长期增长关系历来是学术界争论的一个问题。基于新中国成立以来全国及分产业的经济增长数据,在考虑到不同阶段周期波动对长期增长影响不对称性的可能下,运用改进的GARCH-M模型研究了中国经济短期波动对长期增长的影响。结果表明:中国经济波动与经济增长的关系与所处的经济周期阶段有关,波动对增长的整体负面影响主要是由改革前严重的经济衰退造成,改革后适度的经济波动对增长有促进作用。由三次产业数据也得出了类似的结论。
The relationship between short-term volatility and long-term growth has always been a problem arose in academia. Based on the data of the national and sub-industries’ economic growth since the founding of People’s Republic of China, taking into account the asymmetry of cyclical volatility in different stages of long-term growth in different stages, this paper uses the improved GARCH-M model to study the impact of short-term fluctuations of Chinese economy on long-term growth . The results show that the relationship between economic fluctuation and economic growth in China is related to the stage of the economic cycle. The overall negative impact of fluctuations on growth is mainly caused by the severe economic recession before the reform. Moderate economic fluctuations after the reform can promote the growth. Similar conclusions have been drawn from the three industry data.