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卡塞尔提出的购买力平价理论,到现在快一个世纪了。今天,国际经济关系发生了巨大变化:其中最引人瞩目的当数经济全球化条件下生产要素的自由流动,这在很大程度上改变了理论汇率模型运行的基本环境。在生产要素不能自由流动的条件下,国际交换直接以国际价值为基础,这时,汇率的变动仅仅与价格的变动有关,与劳动生产率的变动无关;而在生产要素自由流动的条件下,国际交换应以国际生产价格为基础,这时,汇率的变动仅仅与劳动生产率的变动有关,与价格的变动无关。这是因为,作为确定理论汇率的价格,应该是符合价值的价格,而只有建立在相对劳动生产率之上的相对价格,才是符合价值的价格;因此,应当以新的理论汇率模型E=E_0L_b/L_a·P_a/P_b来取代原理论汇率模型,即E=E_0P_a/P_b。但是,考虑到生产要素在各国之间的流动远非完全自由,因此,今天的理论汇率应以新、旧模型所计算出的汇率为其上、下限,也就是说,应该用新模型来修正原理论汇率模型。
The theory of purchasing power parity put forward by Kassel nearly a century ago. Today, the great changes have taken place in the international economic relations: the most notable free flow of productive factors under the current economic globalization has largely changed the basic environment for the operation of the theoretical exchange rate model. Under the condition that the factors of production can not flow freely, international exchange is directly based on international value. At this time, the exchange rate change is only related to price changes and has nothing to do with changes in labor productivity. Under the free flow of factors of production, The exchange should be based on international production prices. At this moment, the exchange rate changes are only related to the changes in labor productivity, not to the changes in prices. This is because, as the price that determines the theoretical exchange rate, it should be a price of value, and only the relative price based on relative labor productivity is the price of value; therefore, the new theoretical exchange rate model E = E_0L_b / L_a · P_a / P_b to replace the original theoretical exchange rate model, that is E = E_0P_a / P_b. However, considering that the factors of production are far from completely free to flow among countries, the theoretical exchange rate of today should be the upper and lower limits of the exchange rates calculated by the new and old models, that is, the new model should be used to correct The original theoretical exchange rate model.