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风险投资前的项目选择对于风险投资成败有着重要影响,如何进行风险投资项目的选择,是近年来一直备受关注的重要研究课题。本文针对风险投资项目选择问题,提出了一种基于相似案例分析的决策分析方法。在该方法中,首先,计算历史案例与目标案例间的相似度;然后,依据事先设定的相似度阈值来提取相似历史案例,并构建对应于各目标案例的相似历史案例集;进一步地,依据相似历史案例并结合当前实际情况来进行目标案例涉及的风险因素值和收益指标值的计算;在此基础上,通过综合考察目标案例的风险投资项目关于项目风险和项目收益两方面的综合评价值来进行风险投资项目的优选。最后,通过一个实例分析来说明了本文提出方法的可行性与有效性。
The project choice before venture capital has an important influence on the success or failure of venture capital. How to choose the venture capital project has been an important research topic which has drawn much attention in recent years. In this paper, aiming at the problem of venture capital project selection, a decision analysis method based on similar case analysis is proposed. In this method, firstly, the similarity between the historical case and the target case is calculated; then, similar historical cases are extracted according to the preset similarity threshold and similar historical case sets corresponding to each target case are constructed; further, Based on the similar historical cases and the current actual situation, the calculation of the risk factor value and the return index value involved in the target case is carried out. Based on the comprehensive evaluation of the venture capital project of the target case on the project risk and the project return Value to the venture capital project optimization. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.