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改革开放以来,劳动力逐渐由农业向非农业转移,对中国经济增长的贡献很大,但其贡献具体有多大,国内鲜有系统的实证研究,主要原因是流动人口参与劳动的复杂性和核算方法上存在较大差别。流动人口对经济增长的贡献包括两个部分:劳动力的贡献和对生产率增长做出的贡献,本文采用要素分解的方法对流动人口劳动力和劳动生产率的贡献进行分别计算,然后把各自占GDP的比例汇总。结果表明,流动人口劳动力供给是中国经济增长的重要来源,其贡献在不同的人口流动管理政策时期表现不同,并且在未来有减弱的趋势。
Since the reform and opening up, the labor force has gradually shifted from agriculture to non-agriculture and made great contributions to China’s economic growth. However, its contribution is rather specific. There are few systematic and empirical studies in China, mainly due to the complexity and accounting methods of migrant workers in labor participation There is a big difference. The contribution of floating population to economic growth consists of two parts: the contribution of labor force and its contribution to productivity growth. In this paper, the factor decomposition method is used to calculate the contribution of labor force and labor productivity of floating population separately. Then, Summary. The results show that the supply of labor force for migrants is an important source of China’s economic growth. Their contributions have been different during different periods of population mobility management policies and have weakened trends in the future.